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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-01-06T02:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-01-06T02:00Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43769/-1
CME Note: Wide CME first seen to the East in SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-01-06T02:00Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. This CME is not seen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2026-01-05T17:23Z to 2026-01-06T04:23Z. The source of this event is a C2.2 class flare and associated eruption from Active Region 14334 (S15E33) which began at approx. 2026-01-06T00:15Z. This flare is visible in SDO AIA 131, along with dimming seen in SDO AIA 193 and 211. Field line opening can be seen in SDO AIA 171 and GOES SUVI 284. Arrival characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 4nT at 2026-01-08T04:57Z to 14nT at 2026-01-08T16:24Z. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed is observed from ~375 km/s at 2026-01-08T04:57Z to ~430 at 17:12Z. Throughout this signature an increase in temperature is observed from ~25,000 K to ~60,000 K, with density increasing from ~4p/cc to ~18 p/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-08T04:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-08T09:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43776/1
Model Inputs:
2026-01-06T02:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-33.0, Lat.=-11.0, Speed=895.0, HalfAngle=29.0, Time21.5=2026-01-06T05:13Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-01-08T09:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=4
(kp)180=6

Other Location(s) Impact:
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-08T00:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260106_051300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 37.90 hour(s)
Difference: -4.05 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2026-01-06T15:03Z

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